Global burden of autism spectrum disorders among population aged 70 years and older from 1990-2021, with projections to 2040: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

This study looked at autism in older adults (70+) worldwide from 1990-2021. It found that autism cases in this age group nearly tripled, mostly due to more older people overall and better recognition of autism. Men were more likely to have autism than women. Wealthier countries had higher rates. By 2040, cases are expected to more than double again. This shows we need better support and services for older autistic adults.

This global study analyzed autism spectrum disorder (ASD) prevalence and disability burden in adults aged 70+ from 1990-2021, with projections to 2040. Using Global Burden of Disease data, researchers found ASD cases in this population increased 177% (894,700 to 2.48 million cases), driven primarily by population growth and increased age-specific prevalence. Males showed higher prevalence rates than females (773.6 vs 287.8 per 100,000). High sociodemographic index countries had the highest rates and greatest increases.

Projections indicate cases will reach 5.15 million by 2040, accounting for 864,700 disability-adjusted life-years. The study highlights the overlooked challenge of aging with autism.

Urgent development of age-appropriate autism services for older adults is needed. High-income countries should focus on effective interventions and treatments, while middle and low-income countries need improved screening, diagnostic capacity, and public awareness. Healthcare systems must prepare for rapidly increasing numbers of older autistic adults requiring support.

Study relies on Global Burden of Disease estimates which may have diagnostic inconsistencies across regions and time periods. Projections assume current trends continue. No information provided about study methodology, data quality, or potential underdiagnosis in older populations, particularly in lower-resource settings.

Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) is a lifelong neurodevelopmental condition that negatively affects older adults, yet it receives minimal priority and limited attention in research and healthcare services for this population. Using data from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, we estimated the prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of ASD among population aged ≥70 years globally from 1990-2021, with projections to 2040. Decomposition analysis was conducted. Globally, the number of ASD cases among individuals aged ≥70 years increased from 894.7 thousand in 1990 to 2478.9 thousand in 2021, corresponding to an increase of 177.1%, with population growth contributing to the largest increase, followed by increased age-specific prevalence rates.

It is projected that by 2040, the number of cases will reach 5150.9 thousand worldwide, accounting for 864.7 thousand DALYs. Between 1990 and 2021, the prevalence rate of ASD among the older population increased by 13.2%, projecting to increase steadily by 2040. Males had a higher prevalence rate of ASD in 2021 (773.6 versus 287.8 per 100,000 people) than females. High sociodemographic index (SDI) countries had the highest rate and the greatest increase.

Similar trend patterns were observed in the number of DALYs and DALY rates. To address this overlooked but increasingly severe challenge, more attention and timely development of effective interventions and management services are needed. High SDI countries should focus on developing effective intervention and treatment strategies, while middle and low SDI countries need to improve screening and diagnostic capacities and public awareness of ASD.