Recalculation of the budgetary impact of risperidone use for Autism Spectrum Disorder: a case study using measured demand data, Brazil, 2017-2019.

This study looked at how much money Brazil's health system actually spent on risperidone (a medication sometimes used for autism) compared to what they thought they would spend. The real costs were much higher than predicted - about 50-60% more than expected for both children and adults with autism. This shows that predicting healthcare costs can be difficult and that demand for autism medications might be higher than health officials initially think.

This Brazilian case study examined the budgetary impact of risperidone use for autism spectrum disorder in the national health system from 2017-2019. Researchers compared actual medication dispensing data with original budget estimates from health technology assessment reports. The analysis revealed significant differences between predicted and actual costs, with measured demand exceeding initial estimates by approximately 58% for children (BRL 10.4M vs 6.6M predicted) and 53% for adults (BRL 15.1M vs 9.9M predicted). This discrepancy highlights the importance of using real-world data for healthcare budget planning and suggests that demand for autism-related medications may be higher than initially anticipated by health authorities.

Healthcare systems may be significantly underestimating the demand and costs for autism-related medications. This has important implications for budget planning, resource allocation, and ensuring adequate medication access for autistic individuals. The findings suggest need for more accurate demand forecasting methods and consideration of real-world utilization patterns in health technology assessments.

This is a single-country case study limited to one medication over three years. The analysis relies on dispensing data which may not reflect actual consumption or clinical appropriateness. No information provided about factors contributing to the budget variance or clinical outcomes associated with the increased utilization.

To analyze the budgetary impact of use of risperidone for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). This is a case study with a document-based approach, which compared the estimates of the budgetary impact analyses presented in the recommendation reports of the National Commission for the Incorporation of Technologies (CONITEC) for the use of risperidone for ASD with amounts ​​recalculated from measured demand data. The recalculation for children (0-17 years) and adults (≥18 years) was made using data from the Open Health Intelligence Room platform on the dispensing of risperidone in the SUS, considering a three-year time period (2017-2019). The total budgetary impact over three years of use of risperidone for ASD showed differences between measured demand (children: BRL 10,389,702.70; adults: BRL 15,075,767.80) and that estimated by CONITEC in its recommendation reports (children: R$ 6,579,809.00; adults: R$ 9,877,790.18).

The budgetary impact of use of risperidone for ASD, based on measured demand, differed from the impact initially predicted in CONITEC's recommendation reports.